Publication: Análisis de quiebra empresarial: modelo de ecuaciones de estimación generalizadas sobre datos panel
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2016-04-26
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
Análisis de Quiebra Empresarial: Modelos de Ecuaciones de Estimación Generalizadas sobre Datos Panel. En la creciente turbulencia del entorno económico y social que impera a nivel mundial, es precisamente la predicción oportuna de la quiebra empresarial uno de los problemas a los que se ha venido enfrentando la economía debido principalmente a las consecuencias que provoca a todos los agentes relacionados con la empresa. En época de crisis financiera, los índices de mortalidad empresarial incrementan. Muchos y muy diversos han sido los estudios que se han elaborado relacionados con la predicción de los factores para prevenir situaciones de insolvencia financiera. Hoy en día y a pesar de los esfuerzos realizados, aún no existe una teoría única sobre la quiebra empresarial sin embargo, los datos contables provenientes de los estados financieras publicados por las empresas siguen siendo válidos para predecir dichas situaciones de riesgo. En el dinámico entorno en el que actualmente se desempeña el mundo de las empresas a nivel global, resulta fundamental disponer de herramientas y metodologías que permitan al empresario anticipar situaciones no deseadas que puedan desencadenar situaciones de insolvencia. La presente tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo general identificar aquella variables tanto micro como macroeconómicas que resulten más significativas al momento de analizar las probabilidades de fracaso empresarial anticipadamente. Para conseguir el objetivo planteado se han utilizado 19 variables explicativas, calculadas para todas las empresas cotizadas en los índices IPC de México, IBEX-35 de España y EURO STOXX50 de Europa...
In the growing turbulence of the economic and social environment prevailing all around the world, it is precisely the timely prediction of corporate bankruptcy the economy mainly due to the consequences caused to all the agents involved with the company. In times of financial crisis, corporate mortality rates increase. Several studies have been conducted regarding predicting factors to prevent financial distress situations. Today despite the efforts made, there is still no single theory on corporate solvency; however the financial data from the financial statements published by the company are still valid to predict such risk. In the dynamic environment in which today's world of business works globally, it is essential to have tools and methodologies that allow the employer to anticipate unwanted situations that may trigger insolvency. This thesis has the general objective to identify both, micro and macroeconomic variables which are more significant when analyzing the likelihood of business failure in advance. To achieve the stated objective has been used 19 explanatory variables calculated for all companies listed on the Mexico IPC index, Spanish IBEX-35 index and Euro zone EURO STOXX50 Index...
In the growing turbulence of the economic and social environment prevailing all around the world, it is precisely the timely prediction of corporate bankruptcy the economy mainly due to the consequences caused to all the agents involved with the company. In times of financial crisis, corporate mortality rates increase. Several studies have been conducted regarding predicting factors to prevent financial distress situations. Today despite the efforts made, there is still no single theory on corporate solvency; however the financial data from the financial statements published by the company are still valid to predict such risk. In the dynamic environment in which today's world of business works globally, it is essential to have tools and methodologies that allow the employer to anticipate unwanted situations that may trigger insolvency. This thesis has the general objective to identify both, micro and macroeconomic variables which are more significant when analyzing the likelihood of business failure in advance. To achieve the stated objective has been used 19 explanatory variables calculated for all companies listed on the Mexico IPC index, Spanish IBEX-35 index and Euro zone EURO STOXX50 Index...
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Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Financiera y Contabilidad I, leída el 11-12-2015