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Análisis y evaluación de la estabilidad del Magreb

Imagen de portada del libro Análisis y evaluación de la estabilidad del Magreb

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Resumen

  • The Maghreb, a region culturally, geographically and historically integrated, was swept by a gale of freedom, which has resulted as unintended consequences in a landscape dominated by Islamists from Syria to Morocco occupying the first vertex of the safety triangle. In another vertex we have the different armed forces which were and still are key players in most countries and whose responses to the riots has been key to the outcome of these, and could be moderators of craving Islamists trying to impose sharía worldwide at all costs. The third vertex is occupied by the association or link between the terrorism and the transnational crime, that far from reducing its influence, is coming back from Sinai to Mauritania, rearmed with arsenals abandoned by the Gaddafi regime and envolving the entire Maghreb, setting up the key base in the Sahel The Arab revolts have had different consequences in the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) countries but the Islamist actors have emerged and been reinforced in the five cases. The heads of state of Tunisia and Libya, Zine El Abidine Ben Alí and Muammar El Gadafi, both two among the strongest enemies of Islamists all over the world, were overthrown. Ennahda is legal in Tunisia, and even governing the country, and a number of Salafist parties and movements, including in some cases militants who practise violence, are legal as well. In Libya, Islamists did not win the July 7th, 2012, elections, but Islamist groups and movements, including militias and terrorist cells, are proliferating. In Algeria, the Algerian Green Alliance did not win the May 10th, 2012, polls, but Islamists are gaining space in the political arena and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) continues to be a threat at domestic and regional levels. In Morocco, the Islamist Justice and Development Party (JDP) won the November 25th, 2011, general elections, and it plays an active role in the coalition government. At the same time, The Justice and Charity movement and other more radicalized Islamist actors try to gain the support in the streets of the Islamist- oriented people in the Kingdom. Finally, Mauritania has remained apart from the process of revolts, but the combination of a solid and long Islamist offensive from AQIM, on one side, and the structural problems affecting the security of the country, on the other, has transformed it into the weakest member of the AMU.

    The riots, unleashed in the African Maghreb because of the young Tunisian Mohamed Buaziz,s sacrifice, found its remote cause in its long period of autocracy and economic decline, and the immediate origin in the hard increase of the basic feeding prices since middle of 2008. These riots have brought out actual revolutions, transforming in a real way the old kind of regimes, in three of the countries analyzed: Egypt. Libya (by internationalized civil war) and Tunisia, keeping the previous status quo in the other two countries: Algeria and Morocco by means of an appropriate combination of repression and concessions. Anyway, these riots would also be the opportunity for the democratic Islamism consolidates itself as a first order political force all over the region, obtaining the Governments of Egypt and Tunisia, managing to implant itself in Morocco and attaining be the first political opposition force in Libya and Algeria.

    Concerning the impact on the economy, the Maghreb regional economy presents different characteristics between the countries. While Algeria, Tunisia and Libya are countries with a medium development is consolidating over the past two decades, Morocco is an economy in the early stages of development and Mauritania is a poor country in a failed state.

    Any analysis of the economic reality of these countries should include, in addition to the official economy, the inputs from informal economy that includes both: the production for self consumption and illegal activities mostly related to illegal trafficking, especially persons and drugs.

    Overall, the entire Magreb´s economy of is basically linked to trade with and investment from the EU, and shows a strong dependence on the production and distribution of energy resources.

    Finally, the analysis of social and economic risks and vulnerabilities must clearly differentiate those that are common to all countries in the region, as the growing economic gap being generated between them, from those that are specific to each country. The main medium-term strategic risk is the access by radical Islamist groups to energy resources and their distribution through control of state institutions. In short, the social movements that have occurred during the «Arab Spring» have opened a phase of history that has marked a before and an after.

    The significance and importance of all these changes, most of them still in progress, is such that it can determine a new world order.

    The aim of this paper is to analyze all factors that influenced the so called «Arab Spring», addressing the psychological impact on the societies and also determining the social challenges that all these countries face today.

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