¿La balanza de pagos limita el crecimiento económico? Nueva evidencia para Chile periodo 1980-2019. El papel de los flujos de capital
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Thirlwall (1979) afirmó que el crecimiento económico principalmente de los países en vías de desarrollo está limitado por la balanza de pagos, debido a la dependencia en las exportaciones. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue verificar el crecimiento económico bajo el enfoque de la ley de Thirlwall ampliada a flujos de capital para el caso chileno durante 1980-2019. Los datos se obtuvieron de los indicadores del desarrollo del Banco Mundial (2021). Se aplicó una estrategia econométrica mediante el proceso de un modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR), causalidad de Granger (1969), cointegración de Engle-Granger (1987) y Johansen (1991), y finalmente se estima un modelo de Corrección de Errores Vectoriales (VEC) para determinar la relación a largo plazo. Los resultados muestran que se cumple la Ley de Thirlwall. Además, al integrar los flujos de capital (IED) el país ha demostrado una relación de largo plazo. Existe una relación bidireccional entre el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y las exportaciones, y una relación unidireccional que va desde el PIB hacia la IED. La política económica podría enfocarse en diversificar las exportaciones, y fomentar la entrada de nuevos capitales suavizando los términos normativos internos.
URL: https://revistas.uta.edu.ec/erevista/index.php/bcoyu/article/view/1851
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