Predicción de la quiebra empresarial: el modelo GRASP-LOGIT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.2810Palabras clave:
financial distress, accounting ratios, feature selection, GRASP metaheuristic, logistic regression, dificultades financieras, ratios contables, selección de características, metaheurístico GRASP, regresión logísticaResumen
La predicción de la quiebra empresarial es un problema que goza de una gran relevancia en las ciencias empresariales. En este trabajo se propone un nuevo método para predecir la quiebra empresarial en una muestra de empresas españolas. Concretamente se trata de un algoritmo de selección de variables basado en la estrategia metaheurística GRASP (procedimiento de búsqueda adaptativa aleatoria y voraz) para seleccionar un subconjunto de ratios financieros, como un paso preliminar para estimar un modelo de regresión logística que prediga la quiebra empresarial. La selección de un subconjunto de ratios financieros, de entre todos los disponibles, reduce los costes de adquisición de datos, aumenta la precisión de la predicción al excluir las variables irrelevantes y proporciona información sobre la naturaleza del problema de predicción. Todo lo anterior permite una mejor comprensión del modelo de clasificación final. Nuestro nuevo modelo, al que llamamos modelo GRASP-LOGIT, funciona mejor que una simple regresión logística en el sentido de que alcanza el mismo nivel de capacidad de predicción con menos ratios contables, lo que lleva a una mejor interpretación del modelo y, por lo tanto, a una mejor comprensión del proceso de quiebra empresarial.
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