Prediction in Economics: Possibilities and Limitations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25115/eea.v35i2.2469Keywords:
Economic Prediction, Econometric Model, Alternative Scenarios.Abstract
This article starts from a reflection on the long path that separates the sciences in which laws of strict compliance predominate, of those others, like Economy, in which only regularities of the past exist and they must risk with uncertain predictions about future. In addition, if the prediction environment is VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity), the task becomes complicated. It is necessary to make a critical review of the past of economic and business prediction to move on to a reflection of its future.Downloads
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References
AHIR, H. y LOUNGANI, P. (2014). There will be growth in the spring: How well do economists predict turning points?”. VoxEU Organisation, 14 April.
FOX, S. y THORBECKE, E. (1968). The theory of Quantitative Economic Policy. North Holland Publishing Co.
HUERTA DE SOTO, J.(2004). Estudios de Economía Política. Madrid: Unión Editorial.
TETLOCK, P. y GARDNEr, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Londres: Broad Books.
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Published
2019-05-17
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