Predicting quarterly Hong Kong tourism demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points with composite leading indicators

Nada Kulendran ^[1] ; Kevin K. F. Wong ^[2]
1. [1] Victoria University
  
  Victoria University
  
  Australia
2. [2] Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  
  Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  
  RAE de Hong Kong (China)
Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 15, Nº. 2, 2009, págs. 307-322
Idioma: inglés
Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)

Resumen
- This study predicts numerical demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points in the growth rate using the single input leading indicator model and assesses its forecasting performance with the ARIMA model and the no-change model. To assess the forecasting performance from the March quarter of 2004 to the December quarter of 2006, models are fitted to the growth rates of Hong Kong inbound tourism demand from selected tourism markets (Australia, Japan, the UK and the USA). Composite leading indicators for the single input leading indicator model are constructed from selected national leading and lagged indicators. To avoid false signals in turning points, a method is specified to identify the correct turning points in tourism demand growth rates. The prediction performance of these models is then examined, based on the mean absolute percentage error, directional change error and turning point error. A statistical procedure is considered to determine whether the actual and predicted directional changes and turning points are independent or associated.